2018年中美贸易摩擦诱发中国股市出现异常波动，经济不确定性上升，危及金融稳定。现有研究又较少关注经济冲击对金融稳定的影响以及金融周期与经济周期间的关系，研究发现：中国金融存在趋势自我维持特征，当前阶段的下行已突破门限值，且预测显示下行趋势将持续；经济冲击影响金融稳定，应摒弃以货币政策调控金融市场的传统方式，防范资本外流引起外汇储备减少对金融稳定的负向影响，降低金融与经济的发展脱离程度；金融周期与经济周期间的短期影响相互掣肘，长期效应彼此抑制，应致力于恢复金融与经济的良性互动，加强金融与经济周期间的协调性。
The China-US trade war in 2018 causes abnormal fluctuations in China’s stock market，and increases economic uncertainty，which would endanger financial stability. Existing studies pay little attention to the impact of economic shocks on financial stability and the relationship between financial cycles and economic cycles. The research findings show that China’s finance features a self-sustaining trend. The current downturn has broken the threshold，and forecasts indicate that the downturn trend will continue. Financial shocks do affect financial stability. We should abandon the traditional way of regulating and controlling the financial market through monetary policy，guard against the negative impact of foreign exchange reserve reduction caused by capital outflow on financial stability，and reduce the degree of financial and economic development separation. The short-term effects between financial cycles and economic cycles are mutually constrained，and the long-term effects are mutually restrained，so the efforts should be made to restore the healthy interaction between finance and economy，and to strengthen the coordination between financial and economic cycles.
