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朝鲜半岛局势的重大变化与发展

文章摘要

2018年是朝鲜半岛局势发生自1992年朝鲜核问题产生以来最大变化的一年,朝鲜对国家政策进行重大调整,由“核经并举”调整为“全力进行经济建设”,再次确认无核化目标并主动采取冻核与对外关系改善的重大行动步骤,由此引发半岛局势和双边关系的一系列重大变化。然而,美朝围绕弃核问题仍存在严重分歧,背后因素是美国在东北亚战略目标的考虑,这不是特朗普个性因素所能改之,半岛无核化仍将是一个长期曲折过程,远非表面形势看起来那么乐观。在现阶段无核化目标无法实现情况下,半岛局势仍有继续保持向好的希望,这取决于东北亚各国的共识与努力,特别是韩国政策选择与作用发挥。

Abstract

In 2018 there were unprecedented changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula after the outbreak of the North Korean nuclear issue in 1992. The DPRK made important adjustments to its national policies,including reaffirming the goal of denuclearization and taking the initiative to freeze the development of nuclear weapons. DPRK measures to improve diplomatic relations caused a series of major changes in both the situation on the Korean Peninsula and bilateral relations. However,on the issue of nuclear abandonment,there are still serious differences between the United States and the DPRK. Denuclearization of the peninsula will remain a long process. At present,the continued improvement in the situation on the Korean Peninsula remains promising. It depends on a consensus among and efforts by the Northeast Asian countries,especially the effects of South Korea’s policy choices.

作者简介
邹治波:邹治波,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长,研究员,主要研究领域为国际关系、国际战略和国际安全。