我国月度经济景气波动从2015年12月开始进入新一轮短周期，出现稳中向好态势。本轮短周期的峰顶转折点已经在2017年3～4月出现。2017年4月以来的经济景气下滑可能会持续到2018年底或2019年1季度，但下降幅度较小。经济运行有望在新的景气水平继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。预测2018年和2019年GDP增长率将分别达到6.6%和6.4%左右，CPI上涨率分别为2.2%和2.4%左右，经济和物价周期波动将继续呈现新常态下的“微波化”特征。
The Chinese economy has entered a new short-term cycle since December 2015，and heads towards stability and progress. The peak turning point of this short cycle appeared in March and April 2017. The economic growth downturn beginning in April 2017 may continue until the end of 2018 or the first quarter of 2019 on a small scale. The Economic growth is expected to keep generally stable at the new economic level. The GDP growth rate is projected to reach 6.6% and 6.4% respectively in 2018 and 2019，and the CPI grows by 2.2% and 2.4%. The economic and price cycle would be also featured with wavelet under the new normal.
