2017年以来，叙利亚局势发生四个方面的重大变化。一是政府军进一步占据主导地位，彻底扭转战局。二是反恐战争取得重大阶段性胜利，“伊斯兰国”穷途末路。三是在围绕叙利亚问题上的大国博弈中，俄罗斯主导地位日益确立并在反恐、推动停火、政治对话等方面发挥重要作用。四是叙战场力量格局由四分天下演化为“两大一小”的新格局。随着“伊斯兰国”的覆灭，叙问题由此进入新阶段。2018年各方围绕叙利亚问题将展开新一轮角逐，并主要在三个方面展开：由军事斗争转向政治斗争，“日内瓦进程”和“阿斯塔纳进程”加深博弈；叙库尔德问题上升，土耳其与美俄叙伊等国的矛盾加剧并扩大；围绕伊朗在叙影响力，美国、以色列、沙特阿拉伯与伊朗在叙展开激烈对抗。随着叙问题进入新阶段，中方的政策也需随之积极调整，在推动政治对话、实现停火、着力反恐、关注难民问题的同时，着手参与叙利亚战后重建的相关准备工作。
Four major features of Syria civil war emerged in 2017：the dominance of Syria government forces on the battlefield，the major victory of counter-terrorism war and the demise of ISIS，the increasingly key role of Russia in counter-terrorism，peace process and political dialogue，and the transformation of battlefield pattern between Syrian government forces and different rebel groups. The Syria civil war entered new phase. In 2018 new round of competitions will continue：military rivalry will be replaced by political rivalry，competition the importance of Syrian Kurdish issue increases while the gap between US and Turkey will widen，and different international and regional powers will intensify. Chinese policy to Syria should be further adjusted in accordance with the latest developments and continue to play constructive role in political dialogue，ceasefire，counter-terrorism and humanitarian issue. Meanwhile，China should prepare for the reconstruction works.
