本报告采用基于碳排放视角的经济增长方式的判别方法，结合《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放核算方法，对京津冀地区1995～2015年的经济增长方式进行测定，结果表明：京津冀地区的经济增长方式先后经历了低碳（Ⅰ型）、高碳（Ⅰ型）和低碳（Ⅲ型）三个阶段；碳排放量增长率随经济增长率的增加而增加，碳生产率贡献率随经济增长率的增加呈减少趋势，表明过高的经济增长率不利于增长方式转变。因此，要提高京津冀地区的经济发展质量，实现经济增长方式的转变，就必须加快产业结构的优化和能源结构的调整；加大技术创新，人才引进；实现京津冀优势互补协调发展。
This paper uses the carbon emission perspective to distinguish the economic growth mode，and based on the carbon emission accounting method in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories，the economic growth pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1995 to 2015 was measured. The result shows：the economic growth pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has gone through three stages：low-carbon （type I），high-carbon （type I） and low-carbon （type III）；the growth rate of carbon emissions increases with the increase of economic growth rate，and the contribution rate of carbon productivity decreases with the increase of economic growth rate，indicating that excessive economic growth rate is not conducive to the change of growth mode. Therefore，in order to improve the economic development quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and realize the transformation of economic growth mode，we must speed up the optimization of industrial structure and the adjustment of energy structure. We should increase technological innovation and talent introduction and realize the complementary development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei.
