2016年8月至2017年7月，以现价美元和特别提款权（SDR）计价的大宗商品价格总指数呈现震荡巩固的特征。在经过一个先升后降的过程后，价格总水平基本维持不变；但农业原料、矿石与金属、原油的价格指数分别上涨了4.3%、19.1%、7.6%，食品价格指数下跌了9.3%。受经济结构调整、过剩产能淘汰和经济增速下滑的影响，中国2016年进口18种大宗商品的价值为3229亿美元，比上年下降9.3%，约占全球进口总额的21.0%，下跌0.4个百分点。2017～2018年，世界经济回暖将导致大宗商品需求增速加快，而大宗商品供给受投资不足的制约，大宗商品价格预计进入稳定反弹通道。大宗商品价格在2017年下半年将有望迎来一波稳定的反弹行情，在2018年将可能继续波动上行。原油平均价格在2017年第四季度将预期涨至53美元/桶左右，2018年有可能进一步反弹至57美元/桶左右。
During the period from August 2016 to July 2017，the commodity price index in terms of current USD and SDR showed the characteristics of fluctuation and consolidation. After a process of rise and fall，the price level remained basically unchanged. However，the price index of agricultural raw materials，ore and metals，and crude oil prices rose by 4.3%，19.1%，and 7.6%respectively，while that of food fell by 9.3%. Due to economic restructuring，excess capacity elimination and declining economic growth，the value of China’s imports of 17 commodities in 2016 was $32.29bn，down by 9.3% from the previous year，accounting for 21.0% of the world’s total imports of these commodities，falling by 0.4% comparing to previous year. From 2017 to 2018，the growth in demand for commodities will be accelerated due to optimistic prospect of global economy，while the supply of commodities will be constrained attributed to insufficient investment，and it is expected that commodity prices will experience rise stably. Commodity price will experience a wave of stable rally in the second half of 2017 and continue to fluctuate upward in 2018. The average price of crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2017 will rise to around $53/barrel，and further rebound to around $57/barrel in 2018.
| Keywords： | Commodity MarketDemandSupplyPrice |
