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2017年国际金融形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2016~2017年全球经济稳定复苏,但是受债务负担和经济结构调整缓慢困扰,尤其是政治因素等一系列不确定性以及货币政策常态化缓慢推进的影响,国际金融市场持续动荡。经济普遍复苏为发展中国家抵御外部金融风险提供了基本面的支撑。然而,国内信贷和债务负担、外汇市场汇率风险、贸易保护主义等给新兴和发展中国家金融稳定带来挑战。2017年国际金融市场受到一系列政治事件的冲击。这些冲击瞬间改变投资者对风险资产的定价。受经济基本面支撑,全球股市大幅度上扬。而在外汇市场,受特朗普执政的不确定性影响,美元对主要货币总体呈现贬值态势。展望未来,发达国家货币政策正常化的推进以及可能出现的新的加息势头,将对全球金融市场造成影响,新兴和发展中国家或迎来新一轮资本流出,金融稳定性再度受到冲击。

Abstract

The global economic recovery in 2016-17 has been steady. However the international financial market was not stable because unsettled debt burden and slow adjustment of the economic structure. Especially,some political factors,a series of uncertainties and the slow progress of monetary policy normalization had major impact on the market moves. The general economic recovery in developing countries helped prevent external financial risks. However,domestic debt burden,foreign exchange market risks and trade protectionism posed challenges to the financial stability. A series of political events shocked the market in 2017. These shocks affected investors’ risk pricing in an instant. Supported by economic fundamentals,global stock markets boomed. In foreign exchange market,the US dollar depreciated against major currencies in face of the uncertainty of Trump administration. Going forward,the advance to normalize monetary policy in developed countries as well as the possible rise of interest rates will affect the global financial market. The emerging and developing countries will probably face a new round of capital outflow,challenging the financial stability in these economies.

作者简介
高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。
刘东民:刘东民,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。