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2017年巴西经济重回增长轨道及不确定前景

文章摘要

巴西在经历了持续两年的严重经济危机后,2017年巴西经济终于“触底反弹”,展现出一系列的复苏迹象,GDP增长近1%,通胀率、基准利率、失业率下降,出口增长强劲,外国直接投资增多,生产活动渐趋活跃,经济衰退阴影渐行渐远,经济重新回归正常的增长轨道。但巴西这块“金砖”能否持续发光闪亮,取决于巴西内外有利环境能否保持,取决于结构性问题和基本矛盾能否真正解决。10月大选将主宰2018年巴西政治社会生活,并将对巴西经济的复苏以及未来的发展产生重要影响。

Abstract

After Brazil experienced a serious economic crisis lasting two years,the Brazilian economy finally “bottomed out” in 2017,showing a series of signs of recovery,GDP growth was nearly 1%,the inflation rate,benchmark interest rate and unemployment rate decreased,and export growth was strong. Foreign direct investment has increased,production activities have become increasingly active,the shadow of economic recession has gradually drifted away,and the economy has returned to a normal growth track. However,whether or not Brazil's “brick” can continue to shine will depend on whether the favorable environment inside and outside Brazil can be maintained,depending on whether structural problems and basic contradictions can be truly resolved. The October election will dominate Brazil's political and social life in 2018 and will have an important impact on Brazil's economic recovery and future development.

作者简介
吴洪英:吴洪英,博士,中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研究所所长、研究员,主要研究领域为拉美研究。