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我国核电“走出去”形势分析与前景展望

文章摘要

核电“走出去”是我国的国家战略之一。本文分析了我国核电产业走出去的现状、国际市场形势和发展潜力。研究发现,福岛事故对世界核电发展影响有限,国际核电市场缓慢复苏的态势没有改变。由于受到能源消耗增速减缓、新能源发展的影响,世界核电市场短期(2030年之前)容量有限,长期(2030年之后)随着发展中国家经济的发展和核电国家老机组的更新换代,核电将迎来新的发展高峰。本文进一步提出了我国核电产业“走出去”战略的政策建议。

Abstract

TThe going global of nuclear power industry is one of China’s national strategies. This paper analyses the current situation of technology and market for nuclear power industry around the world,and predicts the potential market and technology trend in the coming decades. The research points out that the impact of Fukushima accident on the global nuclear power industry is mitigated,while the moderate recovery of the world nuclear power market is still continuingsince the beginning of the new century. However,given the fact that the global energy consumption slows down and the renewable energy gets cheaper,we conclude that the volume of short-term global market(before 2030)is quite limited. In a long-term perspective,along with the rising consumption of the developing countries and renew demands of nuclear facilities in developed countries,the nuclear power industry around the world will boom after 2030. Finally,this paper gives some policy suggestions for the going global of China’s nuclear power industry.

作者简介
陈玲:陈玲,清华大学公共管理学院副教授,清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心副主任,主要从事科技与产业政策研究。
郑玉辉:郑玉辉,研究员级高级工程师,中国核能行业协会专家委员会秘书长,长期从事核能发展战略研究。