2017~2018年,尼日利亚政局总体稳定,局地安全问题出现叠加。布哈里总统超长时间海外就医引发国内不安,其健康状况为2019年大选增加不确定性。东部民族分裂势力“比夫拉原住民”借内战爆发50周年节点不断造势,被定性为恐怖组织。中部地带农牧民冲突正在将国家引向危险境地,亟须应对。“博科圣地”恐怖袭击出现反弹,尼反恐任重道远。尼日利亚经济走出衰退,政府出台《经济恢复与增长计划》,但经济恢复尚需时日,经济改革缓慢推进。外交方面,尼继续发挥西非领头羊作用,在解决冈比亚选举危机中发挥关键作用。与南非的关系因南非排外事件而出现不睦,两国争夺非洲经济、政治影响力成为常态。尼日利亚希望欧美支持其反恐、增加援助,但对欧美不当言论、反恐双重标准表示不满。从发展趋势看,随着2019年大选临近,尼日利亚局地动荡将加重,但总体局势在可控范围,经济保持缓慢增长,在地区和国际事务中的影响力因国内问题掣肘会有所下降。
During 2017-2018,political situation in Nigeria remains largely stable,with local security threats rising and worsening. The long oversea medical leave of president Buhari triggered a wide concern in Nigeria over his health condition,which will add more uncertainties to the 2019 presidential election. Separatist forces of Indigenous People of Biafra(IPOB)in the East,which was listed by the Federal Government as terrorist organization,took the advantage of the 50th anniversary of the breakout of Nigerian Civil War to seek for independence. The rising herders-farmers violence conflicts in the Middle Belt are leading the country into a precarious condition. Urgent and lasting measures should be taken to deal with the deadly conflicts. Boko Haram is far from being beaten. There is a long way for Nigeria to fight against terrorism. Nigerian economy is getting out of the recession. The government adopted the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan(ERGP). In the diplomatic fields,Nigeria plays a leading role in peace-making in West Africa as showcased in the settlement of the Gambia crisis. Nigeria's relations with South Africa got tense due to the xenophobic movement of the latter,and the competition for larger political and economic influence between the two countries will continue. Nigeria's relations with U.S. and European countries are relatively complicated. While Nigeria opposes Western countries due to their double standard on terrorism,it is still in urgent need from Western support to fight against terrorism and maintain peace. Nigeria will keep its good relations with China and India to boost its economic and social development. With the coming of 2019 presidential elections,Nigeria will face more challenges.
Keywords: | Political and Economic SituationsNigeriaIndigenous People of BiafraFarmer-Herder ConflictBoko Haram |