自2015年底以来，埃塞国内示威抗议不断，并在短短两年内实施两次国家紧急状态。埃塞正处于十字路口，其面临的挑战既源于正在进行的经济转型，也来自执政联盟埃革阵从革命党向执政党的转型。在民族矛盾的标签下，社会矛盾、利益之争及民众反政府情绪等多种因素交织，政治风险上升，经济增速放缓。埃塞的冲突既有转型社会的共同原因，即经济利益和政治权利的分配不平衡问题，也有其特殊之处，即少数民族提格雷族（仅占全国人口8%左右）长期实际掌握国家政权。展望2018年，埃塞将在不确定中寻求发展，埃革阵的执政地位虽有所削弱，但仍能稳定大局，埃塞政府推行的结构转型和工业化之路仍将继续推进。
Ethiopia has declared its second state of emergency in two years amid widespread protests that have persisted since the end of 2015. Ethiopia is at a crossroad，facing challenges from both the ongoing economic transformation and the ruling party EPRDF's transition. With the tag of “ethnic conflict”，social conflicts，economist interest competition and anti-government sentiment are intertwined. The root of Ethiopian conflict lies in the inequitable distribution of political and economic resources，which is common for all transition countries. But the fact that the Ethiopian regime is dominated by the Tigray minority will add risk to the country's stability. Looking ahead to 2018，EPRDF will still have the capacity to stabilize the country despite of its weakening power. The industrialization and economic transformation will continue as well.
