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大棋局:“印太”战略博弈及其对中国安全的影响

文章摘要

在以美、印、日、澳为核心构建的“印太”战略体系中,“盟主”美国为了应对来自“中国的威胁”和维持其在世界的霸权地位,意图将多个具有实力的大国或中等强国置于“印太”大棋局之中,以应对中国崛起并形成美国霸权之下大国相互制衡的均势格局。可以说,“印太”战略是“亚太再平衡”战略的延续,是美国在“印太”针对中国的“新制衡”战略。中国看似被排除在“印太”战略体系之外,但事实上中国不仅是局中人,而且是“印太”战略构想所针对的主要目标。“印太”战略构想所聚焦的核心区域是西太平洋和东印度洋的孟加拉湾地区,美国主要的战略意图是发挥印、日、澳战略支点的作用,特别是利用印度在东印度洋的战略优势向西太平洋施压,挤压中国的战略空间。“印太”战略不仅会使中国在印太地区面临战略压力,而且将对中国促进印太地区经济融合产生“撕裂性”影响,并对中国与周边国家共同安全的理念以及塑造周边安全秩序造成“割裂性”影响。虽然“印太”战略目前还处于构想阶段,更多的是一种“战略威慑”,未来是否或能在多大程度上实施还存在很大的不确定性,但美国将中国确定为“战略竞争对手”所引发的中美战略博弈必将持续下去。基于此,中国应该从地缘经济视角将印太两洋地区作为一个整体并结合“一带一路”而谋篇布局,借力中国的地缘经济优势,努力挖掘“印太”地缘经济中的积极因素,加速印度洋与太平洋地区的经济融合,以地缘经济为突破口化解地缘政治中面临的“安全困境”,并适时创造和利用地区安全中的合作契机,借势扩大中国的海洋权益和战略空间,服务于“一带一路”特别是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设。

Abstract

In the strategic association of “Indo-Pacific” concerning the core constructors of America,India,Japan,and Australia,America takes the leader role,aims are to face with the threats from China and maintain its status of hegemony,and take some big and middle sized countries in to the “Asia-Pacific” grand chessboard,fulfil the aim of restrict and balance China’s power,and form the balancing structure leaded by the US and make huge countries to balance each other. That is to say,“Indo-Pacific” strategy is the extended strategy of rebalancing “Asia-Pacific” region,it is the new rebalancing strategy focusing on China’s power of the US’s “Indo-Pacific” ones. It seems that China is excluded out of the “Indo-Pacific” strategic system,in fact,China is not only included in the chessboard,but also the main target of “Asia-Pacific” strategy. “Indo-Pacific” strategy dominated by the United States focuses on the core regions of West Pacific and East India Ocean’s Bay of Bengal,mainly aims at fulfilling the pivot function of India,Japan,and Australia,especially takes advantages of India’s priority in east Indian Ocean to press on west Asia-Pacific,and squeeze out China’ s strategic space. “Indo-Pacific” strategy not only makes China face the strategic press of hegemony from Indo-Pacific regions,but also will produce tearing influence on China’s promotion of economic amalgamation in Indo-Pacific region,which will bring cutting apart influence on China’s and the surrounding countries’ safety ideology. Though the “Indo-Pacific” strategy are in the stage of conceiving,it is more of a kind of “strategic threats”,it is uncertain whether it can be practiced or to practice on what extent. The US treats China as a strategic competitor,and the gaming between China and the US will last long. Based on this,China should from the angle of regional and economic perspectives,treat the two oceans-“Indo-Pacific” as a whole and considering “One Belt and One Road” initiative to draw the blue print,taking the regional and economic advantages of China,strive to find positive elements of “Indo-Pacific” region and economy. And quicker the economic combination between India Ocean and Pacific Ocean,solve the safety dilemma in the regional politics and take regional economy as the main spot to find the way,create and use regional safe center as the cooperation opportunity,thus to expand China’s maritime rights and interests,as well as the strategic spaces,thus to serve the construction of “One-Belt and One Road”,as well as the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”.

作者简介
朱翠萍:朱翠萍,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心副主任,教授、博士、硕士生导师,《印度洋经济体研究》编辑部主任。主要研究领域包括海洋战略、南亚问题和中印关系。