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乌兹别克斯坦:政治风险下降,金融风险增加

文章摘要

2017年,就国家风险而言,政治方面:乌兹别克斯坦政权过渡平稳,出现战争与武装冲突的风险不大,恐怖主义威胁较低,边境冲突问题初步得到解决,毒品威胁依然较大。经济方面:经济增速下降,通货膨胀恶化风险较大,失业率偏高,货币金融各项利率基本保持稳定,财政赤字增加,公债规模有所上升,经常账户顺差缩小,国际储备持续下降后有所回升,汇率可能进一步贬值。商业环境方面:投资环境不断改善,但行政效率有待提升。

Abstract

In 2017,the power transition of the Uzbekistan regime was stable and smooth. The risk of war and armed attack was little in Uzbekistan. The threat of terrorism attacks was low. The border conflict with neighbouring countries was starting to resolve. The drug threat remained high. The economic growth of Uzbekistan declined. The possibility of aggravating inflation was larger. Unemployment rate remained high.Interest rates of bank and other financial institutions were stable.The goverement fiscal deficit increased and current account surplus shrank. The investment environment was improved gradually but administrative efficiency still had to be improved.

作者简介
张友国:张友国,博士,首都师范大学中南亚-中国新疆研究中心教授。