政府投资效果影响广泛而深远,本文采用经济效率、社会公平以及生态环境等综合性指标加以衡量,并得出效果分析结果。整体经济效果层面:政府投资对民间投资的挤入效应明显;经济活跃度、均衡宏观经济、优化经济结构趋势向好。宏观经济层面:GDP增加,财政收入增加,居民收入结构优化;增量资本产出比显示投资效率先增后降;投资拉动就业效果呈快速下降趋势。微观经济层面:消费和支出增加且结构优化;社会消费品零售额占GDP比例增大;能源产出正向效益明显;能源投资产出和科技投资产出增长。社会效果层面:人员素质提高且人力资本增长明显;城镇化率逐年增长减缓;卫生支出提高且城市提高幅度大于农村;人口平均预期寿命增长;文物业整体向好且产出效率明显;社会治安良好;旅游收入增长。生态环境效果层面:造林总面积趋势性增长;自然保护总体稳定;环境治理效果增长明显。最后,本文提出了政府投资的政策建议,包括:政府投资大小、方向与比例要依据地区经济发展水平进行有差别的计划与实施;政府应适当降低投资比例,产业政策干预逐渐过渡到市场公共信息平台的建设;政府的公共主体属性使投资应更多集中于公共服务领域等。
The effect of government investment is widely and far-reaching. This paper uses economic efficiency,social equity,ecological environment and other comprehensive indicators of to measure. The results of the analysis are as follows:in terms of economic effect:The crowding-in effect of government investment on private investment is obvious;the trend of economic activity,balance of macro economy and optimization of economic structure is positive. On the macro level,the increase of GDP、fiscal revenue and residents’ income together with residents’income structure optimization,incremental capital output ratio shows that investment efficiency firstly increased and then decreased;investment stimulating employment effect shows a rapid downward trend. On the micro level,consumption and expenditure increase and structure is optimized,the percentage of retail sales of social consumer goods in GDP shows increasing trend,energyoutput has obviously positive effects and the growth of energy investment output and technology investment output. On social effect level:the improvement of personnel quality and the significantly increase of human capital,the rate of urbanization has slowed down year by year,the increase of health expenditure and the increase of urban area is larger than rural areas,and the average life expectancy has increased,the heritage industrytends to a better prospect and the output efficiency is obvious,good public security,tourism growth. On ecological environment level:the total area of afforestation increased by trend,the natural protection is generally stable,the effect of environmental governance increased obviously. Finally,the government investment policies suggestions are proposed in this paper,including:the size,direction and proportion of government investment should be planned and implemented differently according to the level of regional economic development,the government should reduce the investment proportion compatibly,the intervention of industrial policy gradually transit to the construction of market public information platform,the investment should be focused more on public service field based on the public attributesof government.
Keywords: | Social EquityGovernment InvestmentEcological EnvironmentFiscal ExpenditureEconomic Effici-ency |