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2018年中国财政政策展望:面向公共风险管理的财政政策

文章摘要

财政政策是实现国家治理的重要工具,也是宏观管理的重要手段。宏观管理经历了从需求管理到供给侧管理,未来经济社会发展面临的不确定性日益加剧,宏观管理将进入更高层次的公共风险管理。未来财政政策要从侧重宏观调控转向公共风险管理,这也更契合我国从注重经济增速转向注重发展质量的要求。与宏观管理相适应,未来财政政策应以改善就业状态为目标,更加积极主动地应对改善就业状态中的各种不确定性,化解其中的风险。2018年财政政策目标更应侧重促进就业公平。未来财政政策转向公共风险管理,实质上是在经济、社会各个领域注入确定性,以确定性来对冲各类不确定性和风险挑战。

Abstract

Fiscal policy is an important tool for the realization of national governance. It is also an important means of macro management. The uncertainty of the future economic and social development is increasing,thus macro management should enter a higher level of public risk management after focus from demand management to supply side management. This also accords with the demand that our country pay more attention to the quality of development Instead of economic growth. The future fiscal policy should aim at improving the state of employment,to deal with various uncertainties in the state of employment. The target of fiscal policy in 2018 should be more focused on promoting employment equity. In the future,fiscal policy is turning to public risk management. Essentially,it is to infuse certainty in every field of economy and society,and to hedge all kinds of uncertainty and risk challenges with certainty.

作者简介
石英华:石英华,财政学博士,中国财政科学研究院研究员,主要研究领域为财政理论与政策、政府预算与政府会计、中长期财政规划、区域经济与地方财政、国际税收等。