2014年以来,PPP迅猛发展,成为基础设施和公共服务提供的主要方式。然而,随着PPP项目规模的迅速扩张和金融严监管时代到来,PPP可能带来财政风险和金融风险。本文从中国PPP发展的进程和结构入手,寻找PPP和风险点,厘清PPP引发财政风险的逻辑,分析央企参与PPP与其杠杆率之间的关系。结果发现,地方政府债券规模不能满足地方政府旺盛投融资需求是PPP成为风险点的重要原因。另外,建筑央企为避免杠杆率增加,通过设计有限合伙基金作为PPP项目公司大股东的方式出表。国资委192号文、资管新规等监管规则封堵了央企PPP出表渠道,对央企参与PPP产生重要影响。
Since 2014,PPP has become the main providing way for infrastructure and public services.However,with the rapid expansion of the PPP and the arrival of financial supervision era,PPP may bring fiscal risks and financial risks.This paper starts with the process and structure of China's PPP development,analyzes PPP and risk points,the logic of the fiscal risk caused by the PPP,and the relationship between PPP and central enterprises' leverage ratio.The result shows that the local government bond size cannot meet the demand of local government's strong investment demand,which brings about the PPP risk point.In addition,central enterprises make a design of limited partnership fund as the main shareholder of the PPP project to avoid the increase of leverage.However,the regulatory rules such as article 192 of SASAC and new regulations on asset management,have blocked the way of central enterprises and have a significant impact on the participation of central enterprises in PPP.