中国经济进入“新常态”以来,宏观风险和金融风险不断累积。我国潜在的系统性金融风险主要来自宏观经济增速和结构演进对金融体系引致的系统性影响、金融体系快速膨胀及跨界经营以及国外政策变化外溢效应等三个方面。我国金融体系存在的主要风险是流动性风险、房地产泡沫、影子银行风险、地方债务问题、产能过剩或资产负债表风险,以及内外风险共振问题等。应对金融风险不仅需要金融领域的风险防范,更重要的是,需要从宏观经济整体的视角来全局、系统考虑金融风险问题,坚持系统协调,坚持深化改革,坚持政策统筹,坚决守住不发生系统性风险的底线。
Systemic risk,also known as endogenous risk,may result in financial crisis.This kind of risk can be transmitted in aspects of time and space dimension.Influenced by the interaction between economic fluctuation and financial systemic risk,liquidity risk plays a significant role in terms of time dimension,centering in interbank market and bond market.By contrast,when the risk is transmitted in the space dimension,major issues like real estate bubble,shadow banking risks and local government debt should be vigilant.Consequently,the prevention and control of systemic risks requires a global framework and system thinking method.Strengthening financial leverage's role should be given the priority.And an effective and long-term housing system should be set up based on the supply and demand relation.Moreover,the supervision of shadow banking system should be enhanced.And strict precautions must be taken against national enterprise bonds and local government bonds.Lastly,marketization reform should be promoted to relieve the resonance between home and abroad.