2016年美国总统大选中特朗普的意外当选让传统民意调查陷入尴尬境地。在社交媒体盛行的时代，大数据方法对了解民意尤其是网络舆情似乎有着天然的优势，但是否因此可以认为民意调查的传统方法已经过时，本文从2016年美国大选出发，基于对传统民意调查方法和大数据优劣势的比较分析，认为在分析社会舆情时，一方面应该加快发展大数据方法以把握网民心态；另一方面应借鉴传统民意调查方法的逻辑和抽样原则，以回应网络舆情无法囊括的群体及相关问题等。
The fact that Donald Trump finally won the US Election 2016 provoked criticism on Lsocial media，big data analysis seems to show great advantages in internet opinion research. Does this mean that methods of random sampling and the like used in public opinion research is outdated？Based on a comparative analysis between traditional methods and big data analysis in the case of US Election 2016，this paper argues that，when doing analysis on social opinion，on the one hand，we should apply big data analysis in order to understand the social ethos revealed in cyberspace；while on the other hand we should not overlook the value of traditional methods of public opinion research in order to make of for what has missed in internet opinion.
