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中国对外贸易转型升级获重大进展

文章摘要

2017年我国对外贸易如期回升。但与世界主要贸易大国相比,我国对外贸易增速大幅放缓,昔日风光不再。以往我们列举了一系列指标来说明我国对外贸易转型升级取得的进展,2017年我们增加了对未来的分析与展望。根据外贸进出口与我国产业结构息息相关,而产业结构升级与我国科学研究、自主技术研发存在因果关系,追本溯源,我们从上游我国科技发展、中游我国高端制造业最新发展,进行贯通始终的全面梳理,分析归纳得出十大结论,未来我国对外贸易将进入全新发展阶段。继2017年复苏趋势,2018年世界经济、贸易将保持较快增长,世界经济短周期运行进入繁荣阶段。2016年人工智能取得了重大突破,2017年世界主要国家开展了一场人工智能大竞赛,2018年或为世界科技产业革命兴起的关键时刻。2018年是值得期待的一年,我国对外贸易进出口将实现有质量、有档次、有品牌的较快增长。

Abstract

China’s foreign trade rebounded in 2017. Compared with the world’s major trading nations,the growth rate of China’s foreign trade has slowed sharply,and the old scenery no longer exists. In the past,we cite a series of indicators to illustrate the progress that China has made in the transformation and upgrading of its foreign trade. In 2017,we added the analysis and forecast for the future. The import and export of foreign products is closely related to our industrial structure. There is a causal relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure is closely related to our scientific research and independent technology research and development. We analysis from the development of science and technology to high-end manufacturing industry,and conclude that China’s foreign trade will enter a new stage in the future.

Following the trend of recovery in 2017,the world economy and trade will maintain rapid growth in 2018,and the world economy will enter a prosperous period with its short-term operation. In 2016,artificialintelligence made major breakthroughs. In 2017,the major powers in the world launched a grand artificial intelligence game. 2018 is to be a crucial moment for the rise of the world’s science and technology industry. In 2018,our country’s foreign trade will achieve rapid growth with quality,grade and brand.

作者简介
金柏松:金柏松,商务部研究院教授、研究员。
刘建颖:刘建颖,商务部研究院副研究员。