我国月度经济景气波动从2015年12月开始进入新一轮短周期，出现稳中向好态势。本轮短周期的峰顶转折点在2017年3～4月出现是大概率事件。2017年4月以来的经济景气下滑可能会持续到2018年二季度以后，但下降幅度不会太大。经济运行有望在新的景气水平继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。预测2017年和2018年GDP增长率将分别达到6.8%和6.6%左右，CPI上涨率分别为1.6%和2%左右，新常态下经济和物价周期波动的“微波化”特征将更为鲜明。
The monthly economic sentiment in China fluctuated from December 2015 to a new round of short-term steady growth. This round of short-term peak turning point in 2017 March to April is a large probability event. The economic downturn since April 2017 is likely to continue beyond 2Q 2018，but the decline will not be too great. Economic operation is expected to maintain a generally steady state of operation at the new prosperity level. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will reach 6.8% and 6.6% respectively in 2017 and 2018，with the CPI rising rates of 1.6% and 2% respectively. The moderate characteristics of the economy and price cycle under the new normal will be apparent.
