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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2017年前三季度工业经济运行分析及趋势预测

文章摘要

2017年前三季度,中国工业呈现趋稳向好的总体特征。工业行业结构继续呈现高端迈进态势,东北地区工业明显改善,工业投资增速小幅回升,结构持续优化,工业出口增速为2012年以来最好水平,工业企业利润保持较高增速。工业经济趋稳向好是由供给侧结构性改革、市场复苏等多因素耦合形成的。但也要看到,国际环境不稳定、不确定因素仍然存在,中国经济正处在结构调整过关期,仍面临不少隐忧和挑战。短期内工业企业成本攀升态势值得注意。模型预测结果显示,2017年规模以上工业增加值增速为6%~6.5%的概率很大。

Abstract

In the first three quarters of 2017,China’s industry showed a general trend of stabilization. The structure of the industrial sector continued to take the trend of high-end. The industries in the northeast region improved significantly. The structure of the industrial investment continued to pick up slightly. The growth rate of industrial exports was the best since 2012. The profit of industrial enterprises maintained a relatively high growth rate. These steady feature is coupled by various factors,such as the supply-side structural reform,market recovery,etc. However,the uncertainties and instability of international environment still exist. The domestic economy is still in the period of restructuring,where many hidden worries and challenges exists. In the short term,the rising cost of industrial enterprises is worth noting. The model predictions show that there is a high probability that the industrial added value will grow by 6%-6.5% in 2017.

作者简介
黄群慧:黄群慧,任职于中国社会科学院工业经济研究所。
江飞涛:江飞涛,任职于中国社会科学院工业经济研究所。
张航燕:张航燕,任职于中国社会科学院工业经济研究所。