本文从价格贸易条件视角出发，综合采用GARCH模型、协整和误差修正模型，对1994年1月至2015年12月人民币汇率变动对贸易福利的影响进行分析。研究发现，价格贸易条件、人民币实际有效汇率、人民币实际有效汇率的波动率、实际收入以及对外开放程度之间存在长期均衡关系。价格贸易条件与人民币实际有效汇率存在正相关的长期关系。人民币汇率的市场化改革有利于改善贸易福利，但需要防范汇率波动幅度过大对贸易福利带来的负面影响。
From the perspective of commodity terms of trade，the paper analyzes the influence of the RMB exchange rate on the trade welfare from January of 1994 to December of 2015. The analysis reveals the long term equilibrium among the commodity terms of trade，the real effective exchange rate，the volatility of the real effective exchange rate，the actual income and the degree of the opening to the outside world. There is a positive long term relation between the commodity terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate. The market reform of exchange rate regime helps to improve the trade welfare.，and the relax of the RMB exchange rate volatility range should be contained in a narrow band so as to reduce the negative effect on the trade welfare.
| Keywords： | The Exchange RateThe Volatility of the Exchange RateThe Commodity Terms of TradeThe Trade Welfare |
