本文主要研究引发跨国资本在不同经济体流动的主要因素，选取2010年第1季度至2015年第4季度22个“一带一路”沿线国家和18个发达国家作为样本。面板VAR实证结果显示，对“一带一路”沿线国家短期跨国资本净流动而言，国外推动因素主要源自全球风险偏好的变化和发达经济体经济增长率，而国内拉动因素主要源自本国经济增长率和利率水平的变化；对发达国家短期跨国资本流动而言，拉动因素为汇率变动率，推动因素为美国GDP增长率和利率，全球风险指数只在净资本流动中起到推动作用。短期资本流动面板VAR方差分解的结果表明，全球风险指数和汇率变动率解释能力均达到14%左右，而经济增长率的解释力不足2%。在推进“一带一路”建设过程中，沿线国家货币政策当局应综合运用各种工具有效管理跨国资本流动，并加强与沿线其他国家之间的政策协调。
This paper studies the main factors of transnational capital flow between different economies，selects the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2015 as the sample.This paper finds that for countries along B＆R the economic growth rate and interest are the most important pull drives of emerging economies’capital flows，the change of global risk appetite and the economic growth is the most important push drives.For developed countries，the rate of exchange rate changes is the pull factors，America’s GDP growth rate and interest rate is the driving factor，Global risk index only play the role of promoting in the net capital flows.The results of panel VAR variance decomposition show that Global risk index and the rate of exchange rate movements explain ability is around 14%，and the explanatory power of economic growth is less than 2%.
