缅甸自1948年初独立后,一直在探寻合适的政治转型路径,但迭遭挫折,始终未能确立适合国情的政治体制。独立之后,推行的议会民主制失败,随后建立长达近半世纪的军人统治。2010年缅甸开启从军人政治向民主政治转型的进程,不到四年,进展显著。以美国为代表的西方、东盟等国际社会与缅甸互动更加良性和密集,也成为缅甸转型的重要外部动力。客观而言,缅甸此轮转型既面临国内复杂难题的掣肘,也会受到世界大国在缅博弈趋于恶性的影响。缅甸能否引导推动其转型的内外动力良性互动,攸关其转型成败。
Myanmar has been exploring an appropriate path of political transformation since its independence in early 1948,but has repeatedly failed to establish a political system suitable to its national conditions. Upon independence,Myanmar implemented parliamentary democracy,but to no avail. Then it established a military rule which lasted as long as half a century. In 2010,Myanmar embarked on its transition process from military to democratic politics,and over the past several years,significant progress has been made. More benign and intensive interactions with the international community,including the US-represented West and the ASEAN,have become an important external motivation for Myanmar’s transformation. Objectively speaking,the current round of restructuring in Myanmar is facing both the constraints from the complex domestic issues and the impact of the intensifying competition of word powers in Myanmar. The sucess or failure of the transformation depends largely on Myanmar’s capacity to promote positive interactions between the internal and external motivations.