本文选用1995～2014年中国对非洲地区的贸易数据描述中—非贸易发展现状，并应用引力模型计算中国对非洲地区的出口贸易潜力。文章得到以下两方面结论：第一，中国对非洲地区出口贸易规模不断增大，环比增速在金融危机后趋缓，中国常年处于逆差国地位，但逆差额于近年急剧减小；第二，中国对非洲地区出口潜力值近20年围绕0。9～1。3波动，而近5年平均值为0。89，意味着中国对非洲地区出口贸易仍有潜力。但中国对非洲南部、东部和中部5年平均出口潜力值均超过1。1，说明针对以上地区进一步发展贸易需要新的增长点。本文还就进一步发展中国对非洲地区的出口贸易提出了建议。
As two of the major emerging countries in the world，Africa and China have played important roles in South-South Cooperation. Based on data from 1995 to 2014，this paper describes the status quo of the trade development between Africa and China. And then analyze the export potential based on Gravity Model. After our research and analysis，we can get the following two main conclusions：First，the export volume from China to Africa is vast in scale but is growing slowly after financial crisis. China has long suffered deficit in such a relationship，but the trade deficit has edged lower recently. Secondly，the value of last 20 years’ export potential from China to Africa was in the range of 0.9-1.3，while the recent 5 years’index is only 0.89，indicating that the potential is yet to be fully released. Concretely speaking，recent 5 years’ indexes of south part，east part and central part of Africa were all above 1.1，meaning new growth point is needed to further develop export in these areas. At the end of this paper，several suggestions are proposed for promoting the development of China-Africa trade.
