您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索
热词推荐: 能源基础设施

叙利亚问题大国博弈图景及其展望

文章摘要

从2011年3月开始,叙利亚政局陷入严重危机之中。在叙利亚危机中,国内力量与国际力量相互争夺与博弈,构成一幅连绵起伏的内战与地区战争交织的图景。该图景由四个阶段构成,剧变初期的政治对立时期、“化武换和平”时期、“伊斯兰国”攻城略地时期以及叙利亚危机外溢时期。本文分析了这四个阶段,探究了大国在叙利亚博弈的逻辑与手段,评估了大国博弈的结果,预测了叙利亚的前途。本文认为,叙利亚危机由国内博弈逐渐演变为世界大国之间的博弈,经过五年发展,各相关力量都被“伊斯兰国”警醒,开始共同打击“伊斯兰国”。和平逻辑开始代替战争逻辑,叙利亚危机的解决迎来曙光。

Abstract

Syrian crisis has lasted for five years. With the deterioration of the situation,Syria sinks deeper into the quagmire of war,which is obviously the proxy war. The world powers and the regional powers are competing for their own interests in Syria,making the conflict in Syria increasingly complex,and the crisis increasingly worse. Now,with the rise of the Islamic State,the growing refugee crisis in Europe and the Russian troops in Syria,Syria war have spread to most parts of eastern Arab,and is still expanding. The Great Game between world powers in Syria played by two groups with the basic structure of three levels,but the conflicts between the Islamic State and the Peshmerga are making the battlefield situation more complex. Many countries cultivate their own agents in Syria,making the Syrian opposition forces fighting with each other,and consumed by infighting,which not only depleted the Syrian political resources,but also provides fertile soil for the rise of the Islamic State. The parties of the great game have already entered on the stage,their tricks have been revealed completely. With the serious consequences of the game,the US and Russia are unable to drag on the Syrian crisis indefinitely,they were forced to change their attitudes towards each other,and change their military confrontation into political talks,the dawn finally appears in the Syrian crisis.

作者简介
戴晓琦:戴晓琦,博士,北京第二外国语学院阿拉伯学院教授,主要研究方向为阿拉伯社会、阿拉伯文化与阿拉伯剧变。