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广东外经贸形势分析报告(2016~2017)

文章摘要

在国际市场需求不振、国际分工体系重构、国内经济步入结构性调整和外贸新旧竞争优势转换等多重因素的叠加影响下,2016年广东外贸继续承压;全年货物进出口总值为6.30万亿元,同比降幅为0.8%,降幅比2015年有所收窄;出口转为负增长,进口与上年基本持平,贸易顺差有所减少;一般贸易进出口额首次反超加工贸易;对美国出口减少。2016年广东实际吸收外资额降幅较大,但对外投资规模创新高。2017年,广东货物出口在全球经济复苏加快尤其是美国经济向好的背景下将有所增加,国内需求增加以及国际大宗商品价格的上涨也将带动进口表现持续改善;全年进出口有望实现正增长,以人民币计值的增速为5%左右;上半年增速较快,下半年增速趋缓;外商投资企业的进出口会出现较快的恢复性增长,国有企业的进出口也会出现恢复性增长。但是,2017年广东外贸发展面临的不稳定、不确定因素增多,特别是美国特朗普政府对华经贸政策的不确定性。逆全球化趋势引发的贸易保护主义可能对广东外贸出口造成较大冲击。因此,2017年广东外经贸形势将出现较大波动。

Abstract

The foreign trade of Guangdong continued to be under pressure in 2016. It’s under the influence of weak international market demand,adjustment of international division of labor,structural adjustment of domestic economic and change of competitive advantages of foreign trade,and so on. 2016 import and export goods worth 6.3 trillion Yuan,year on year decline of 0.8%. The decline was narrower than that of 2016. Exports saw negative growth,when imports were virtually unchanged from the previous year. The trade surplus has decreased. General trade volume of import and export exceed the processing trade for the first time. China’s exports to the United States decreased. In 2016,the actual amount of foreign investment in Guangdong decreased significantly,but the scale of foreign investment record high. According to the report,Guangdong’s exports in 2017 will increase in the context of the acceleration of global economic recovery,especially the US economy. Increased domestic demand and rising international commodity prices will also lead to continued improvement in import performance. Annual import and export is expected to achieve positive growth,with the RMB growth rate of about 5%. Rapid growth in the first half,growth slowed in the second half. The import and export of foreign-invested enterprises will have a rapid recovery of growth,the import and export of state-owned enterprises will also resume growth. However,in 2017,Guangdong’s foreign trade development is facing instability,uncertainties,especially the US Trump government’s economic and trade policy uncertainty. The trade protectionism caused by the trend of anti-globalization may have a greater impact on Guangdong’s foreign trade exports. Therefore,Guangdong foreign trade situation will fluctuate more in 2017.

作者简介
肖鹞飞:肖鹞飞,广东外语外贸大学教授,《国际经贸探索》主编,主要研究国际金融、世界经济、国际贸易。
罗远航:罗远航,博士,广东外语外贸大学《国际经贸探索》编辑,主要从事国际经贸规制研究。