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阿拉伯世界动荡期的走势及表现

文章摘要

经过中东剧变数年发酵,动荡已成为中东“新常态”。一是民主转型未能拯救中东,治理模式探索任重道远;二是地区博弈呈现“地缘争夺+教派冲突”的“新冷战”态势;三是“伊斯兰国”异军突起,中东地区体系根基动摇;四是美国既定战略部署被打乱,中东战略进退失据。阿拉伯世界已进入新一轮动荡期,这种状况短期难以改变。

Abstract

After several years’ ferment of the upheavals in the Middle East,turbulence has become the “new normal” of the region. First,the democratic transition has failed to save the Middle East;there is a long way to go to explore the governance model. Second,the regional game shows the “New Cold War” features of geopolitical rivalry plus sectarian conflict. Third,the meteoric rise of the so-called “Islamic State” has shaken the foundation of the Middle Eastern system. Forth,the established strategic plan of the United States has been disrupted,leaving the Middle East in a strategic dilemma. The Arab world has entered a new round of turbulence,and in the foreseeable future the situation is unlikely to improve.

作者简介
田文林:田文林 中国现代国际关系研究院副研究员。