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2016年南高加索地区形势衍变及其走势

文章摘要

2016年南高加索地区局势总体保持稳定,阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚三国政局均保持基本稳定,阿塞拜疆经过修宪全民公决,政权更加稳固;格鲁吉亚顺利通过议会选举考验,执政党实现“一党独大”,政局趋于稳定;亚美尼亚有惊无险渡过难关,维持基本稳定。地区经济仍未走出困境,但各国都在积极应对,出现一些亮点。在乌克兰危机和“伊斯兰国”外溢效益减弱的背景下,地区各国积极拓展对外关系,外部环境趋于改善。中国与南高国家关系保持良好发展势头,各领域合作稳步推进。综合各种内外因素,2017年南高地区有望继续保持稳定大局。

Abstract

In 2016,the regional situation in South Caucasus maintained the basic state of overall stability,and Azerbaijan,Georgia,Armenia kept on political stable. The regime in Azerbaijan became more solid with a Constitutional referendum. Georgia overcame the challenges of parliamentary election to become stable,where the ruling party won “One-party Dominance”. Armenia overcame the difficulties and survived. Regional economy was not out of the trouble,but every country took positive steps to improve the situation. Under the circumstance of the crisis in Ukraine and ISIS’s spillover effect decline,the countries in South Caucasus expanded foreign relationships,and external environment of these countries has improved. China and South Caucasus countries kept fine developing momentum and made steady progress in cooperation in various field. Considering both internal and external factors,South Caucasus will be stable on the whole.

作者简介
邓浩:邓浩,中国国际问题研究院欧亚研究所研究员。