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2016年中亚五国宏观经济形势

文章摘要

2016年中亚五国经济延续了上年增速放缓的趋势,继续减速,但降幅缩小,并渐趋稳定。区域内通货膨胀得到遏制,经济波动趋缓;人均GDP增速下降,实际人均收入减少,哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦出现负增长;本币贬值和外部需求减少导致对外贸易总额大幅下降。为应对内外部冲击,区域内各国对汇率制度进行了改革和完善。各国货币的名义或实际有效汇率均出现较大幅度贬值,但汇率制度调整使得维持外汇储备的压力减轻。影响2016年中亚各国经济走势的直接原因是俄罗斯经济衰退、中国经济减速和能源价格下跌。结构性原因有经济市场化程度和经济开放度较低,小国开放经济特征和对外经济的高依赖性,以及区域内各国的资源禀赋和单一经济结构。

Abstract

In 2016,Central Asian countries’ economies slowed down as it did in 2015. But the decline was significantly reduced and the economic situation gradually stabilized. Inflation in the region has been curbed,and the economy became stable. Per capita GDP slowed down,and real per capita incomes decreased. Negative growth appeared in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Devaluation and exterior demand remarkable reduction led to slump in volume of foreign trade. To cope with internal and external shocks,exchange rate systems in the Central Asian countries started to reform and perfect. Nominal and real effective exchange rate continued to depreciate significantly. Meanwhile,the reform of exchange rate system relieved the pressure on foreign reserves. The immediate cause of the Central Asian countries’ economic depression in 2016 is the recession of Russia,economic downturn in China and the falling price of energy. Structural reasons includes market economization and economic openness,open economy characteristics of small nations,the high degree of dependence on the foreign economy and economic structure of a single resources.

作者简介
徐坡岭:徐坡岭,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员。