区域能源风险指由能源供应、消费、使用、政策、环境等一系列不确定性因素引起经济、社会损失的可能性。本文对上海能源风险的识别从能源供给、能源消费与能源使用的外部性三个角度展开。综合来看,上海对外部能源资源的依赖性越来越大,可再生能源在上海一次能源中的比重不足1%,具有一定的供给风险;上海经济增长与能源消费总量之间存在显著的正相关关系,能源使用效率低于发达国家的水平,上海经济增长对能源存在较大的依赖;上海能源消费结构中90%以上为化石能源,能源消费是导致环境污染尤其是大气污染的首要原因,存在较大的外部性风险。展望未来,上海的能源风险在短期内不会发生较大的变化,但能源风险的可控性逐渐增强。为了切实防范风险,上海必须通过转型发展进行系统性的降低能源风险;同时发展分布式供能系统,大力开发可再生能源,提高可再生能源在上海能源结构中的比重,从源头防控能源风险;发展节能服务业,注重依靠专业节能服务公司实现全过程的节能;能源生产与消费端加强防控,减少能源消耗的环境风险。
Regional energy risk refers to the possibilities of economic and social losses caused by the uncertainties of the energy supply, consumption, use, policy, and environment. The paper discusses Shanghai's energy risk identification from the aspects of energy supply, energy consumption and the externalities of energy use. In general, Shanghai increasingly dependents on external energy resources, however, Shanghai's renewable energy accounts for less than 1% of primary energy sources, and has a certain supply risks; there is a significant positive correlation between Shanghai's economic growth and energy consumption. Shanghai's Fossil energy consumption accounts for over 90% of the energy consumption structure, which causes environmental pollution, especially the primary reason to cause atmospheric pollution, therefore, there is a large risk of externality. Looking to the future, Shanghai's energy risk will not change greatly in the short term, but the risk controllability will be gradually increased. In order to effectively prevent risks, Shanghai must be through changing of the developing model to systematically reduce energy risk; developing the distributed energy supply system at the same time, vigorously developing renewable energy and increasing the proportion of renewable energy of Shanghai's energy structure to prevent and control of the source of energy risk; besides, developing energy service, and paying attention to rely on professional energy services company to achieve the energy saving of the entire process; strengthening prevention and control from the sides of energy production and consumption, and reducing the negative impact of energy consumption on the environment.