上海面临较大人口风险:总量持续增长,给资源环境和公共服务都带来了巨大压力;老龄化和少子化叠加,使劳动适龄人口越来越不堪重负;人口结构失衡,高素质劳动力短缺,不能满足经济社会转型的需要;不合理的产业布局和公共服务资源配置导致人口过度集中于中心城区。要应对这些人口风险,上海的人口发展战略格局就要做到四个“适应”:人口总量适应区域资源承载力,人口素质适应经济社会转型需求,人口结构适应城市可持续发展,人口分布适应产业布局和公共服务有效配置。就具体措施而言,建议以产业结构升级促进人口结构升级,以选才育才机制提升促进人口素质提升,以郊区新城功能优化促进人口布局优化,以社会保障政策创新促进人口导入-导出平衡。
Shanghai is facing big population risks: the population scale is expanding, exerting great pressure on natural resources and public services; the city is aging while the fertility rate is decreasing, causing heavier and heavier burdens on the working population; talented persons only account for a small share in the total population, not meeting the demand of socio-economic transition; inadequate distribution of businesses and public services brings about over-concentration of population in the downtown area. In order to meet such challenges, Shanghai's population strategy should conform to four "suits": the population scale should suit the carrying capacity of regional resources, the population quality should suit the need of socio-economic transition, the population structure should suit sustainable development of the city, and the population distribution should suit the distribution of businesses and public services. As to detailed measures, it is suggested to improve population structure by improving industry structure, to promote population quality by promoting human-resources management, to optimize population distribution by optimizing the function of suburban new towns, and to seek population inflow-outflow balance by seeking innovations in social security policies.