2016年是奥巴马执政的最后一年。无论是从地缘角度,还是从关注议题来看,美国外交的总体格局并没有发生大的变化。在大选年,奥巴马政府的主要精力放在国内事务上。八年任期结束在即,奥巴马外交努力的方向一定程度上受到了遗产情结的影响。奥巴马政府对外政策主要围绕亚太再平衡战略、核不扩散、反恐、美俄关系、美古关系等主线展开。而大选之后的权力交接则由于特朗普的“意外当选”而给美国对外政策带来更多不确定性。本文还对特朗普政府外交政策的总体趋向进行了展望,并分析了特朗普入主白宫后所面临的困境,认为其对外政策的推进并不能摆脱特定的内外环境,必须面对美国实力及左右世界能力下滑的趋势。
In President Obama’s last year in the White House,there is little change on the overall pattern of American diplomacy,either from the perspective of geopolitics or over the major issues concerned. The Obama Administration spent more energy on domestic issues in the election year. With the coming end of the 8 years in the White House,the top priorities of President Obama were influenced by his intention of leaving diplomatic legacy to some extent. The Obama Administration concentrated on the main issues such as the rebalance strategy,non-proliferation,anti-terrorism,the US-Russian relations,the US-Cuba relations,etc. However,with Donald Trump winning the election unexpectedly,the power transfer brought more uncertainties on American foreign policy. This article also analyzes the general trends of the Trump Administration’s foreign policy and the difficulties it will face in the future. As the article points out,the implementation of the Trump Administration’s foreign policy will be influenced greatly by internal and external environment,especially the decline of American power and its ability to dominate the world.