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2016年的美国经济:增速放缓 动能渐强

文章摘要

2016年美国宏观经济总体形势有两个主要特征:一是增速放缓,不及预期;二是动能渐强,亮点颇多。宏观经济的主要表现是:私人消费支出稳健增长、投资低迷不振、外贸总量继续下降、住宅市场持续向好、劳动力市场日渐趋紧、金融市场表现强劲。2016年,美国经济面临四大短期问题:增速不快、就业不足、投资不稳、住宅市场隐忧犹存。此外,还面临六大长期挑战:劳动参与率下降、生产率增速下降、收入和财富分配极不平等、贫困水平居高不下、保护主义渐行渐近、国家债务难以减少。2016年美国经济政策的特点是“财政略宽,货币仍松”,贸易政策逐渐转向贸易保护主义。展望2017年美国经济,可能是中低速增长、低通胀和充分就业的梦幻时代的开始。2017年美国经济增长前景好于2016年,这是大概率事件。在不考虑特朗普“新政”的前提下,仍看好2017年美国经济的表现。特朗普“新政”对2017年美国经济增长的积极影响远多于消极影响。

Abstract

In 2016,the U.S. economy saw a slowed growth failing previous expectation. Nevertheless the economy is gaining momentum and showing some strengths. There were both good news and bad news. The private consumption spending continued to grow solidly while the business investment was gloomy. The residential housing market continued to improve while the labor market was increasingly close to tight. The financial market performed strongly while the foreign trade continued to fall. In short term,the U.S. economy in 2016 faced some problems as follows:The economic growth was slow;underemployment remained;investment was not stable;and there were some hidden worries in the residential housing market. What’s more,the U.S. economy faces some challenges in the long term:The labor participation continues to fall;productivity growth has been slowed;the polarization of income and wealth remains;the level of poverty has been stubbornly high;the protectionism is coming;and the huge national debt is difficult to reduce. In 2016,the U.S. fiscal policy was slightly active and monetary policy was still accommodative. Also,the position of trade policy gradually turned to trade protectionism. Will the Year 2017 make a flying start to a dreamlike era of U.S. economy with medium and slow growth rate,low inflation and full employment?It’s maybe. But it’s very possible that the U.S. economy in 2017 is much better than that in 2016. Even without President Trump’s new policy,the U.S. economy will be positive. President Trump’s new policy will promote the U.S. economic growth in 2017 even though there are some negative impacts.

作者简介
罗振兴:罗振兴,中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员,经济室主任,主要研究领域为美国经济。