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从特朗普当选总统看美国反建制力量崛起及其影响

文章摘要

2016年美国总统选举是一场建制与反建制的对决。桑德斯和特朗普都以为劳动阶层代言的姿态反对联邦政治中的建制力量,他们分别以左右两翼主张获得反建制民众的支持。特朗普当选总统颠覆了建制力量对总统选举的长期掌控。反建制力量的崛起,是20世纪70年代中期以来美国政治、经济、社会以及国际环境长期变迁的产物,是美国选民对建制力量未能缓解甚至逃避重大社会矛盾的有力回应。这一崛起将影响美国公众的政治参与、政党政治和三权关系,影响美国经济增长、产业结构和收入分配,影响美国族群关系和社会医疗支出,对美国国际环境和国际地位形成多方面冲击,给中美关系带来新的挑战和机遇。

Abstract

The 2016 United States presidential primaries and general election are in essence a battle between the establishment and the anti-establishment forces. Sanders and Trump both attack the establishment in U.S. federal politics in name of the working Americans. They both won substantial supports from anti-establishment voters with their left-wing and right-wing policy proposals respectively. Trump’s win further attacks the malady of political correctness and topples the dominance in presidential elections of the establishment since the end of the Second Word World. This rise of anti-establishment forces is a product of both long term political,economic,social and international changes since mid 1970s,and a powerful response from massive electorate against the establishment who failed to face or mitigate several severe social problems. Domestically,political participation,party politics and relations of three big powers would be reshuffled,exerting long-ranging influence on economic growth,industrial structure and income distribution,ethnic relations and social expenditure on health care,etc. Internationally,it would make a shift to the orientation of U.S. as a hegemon,affecting the international environment in various aspects,and naturally introducing new opportunities and challenges for China-U.S. relations.

作者简介
王欢:王欢,中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员,政治研究室主任,主要研究领域为美国政治、集团政治与社会秩序、内生制度。
刘辉:刘辉,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国政治、美国司法。