本研究构建了较为全面的区域绿色持续创新能力评价指标体系，分维度分年度测算2005～2014年我国区域绿色持续创新能力，计算“十一五”和“十二五”期间我国区域绿色持续创新能力，并对“十三五”期间安徽省绿色持续创新能力进行预测。研究结果表明：①“十一五”和“十二五”期间安徽省绿色持续创新能力在全国分别排第17名和第15名；②中部地区各省绿色持续创新能力存在显著差异，安徽省落后于河南、湖北、湖南三省，长三角各省绿色持续创新能力存在显著差异，安徽省较为落后；③预测显示，“十三五”期间安徽省绿色持续创新能力将有所提升，但仍低于全国平均水平。在实证研究的基础上，本研究对安徽省绿色持续创新能力存在的问题和原因进行深入分析，提出有针对性的对策建议，从而为安徽省绿色持续创新能力的稳步提升提供一定的借鉴和决策参考。
This research constructs a relatively comprehensive index system for evaluating the capacity for constant innovation in regional green development，which computes the capacity for constant innovation in regional green development of the country between 2005 and 2014 by dimension and by year，calculates China’s capacity for constant innovation in regional green development during the 11th and 12th Five-year Plan periods，and makes predictions of Anhui’s capacity for constant innovation in green development during the future 13th Five-year Plan period. The research findings show that：（1）During the 11th and 12th Five-year Plan periods，Anhui ranked 17th and 15th in China in terms of capacity for constant innovation in green development；（2）Significant differences exist among the provinces in Central China in terms of capacity for constant innovation in green development，and Anhui is relatively falling behind；（3）Predictions reveal a boost in Anhui’s capacity for constant innovation in green development during the 13th Five-year Plan period，which，however，will still be lower than national average. Based on empirical approach，this research conducts in-depth analyses of existing problems and their causes in Anhui’s capacity for constant innovation in green development，and proposes corresponding policy recommendations in order to provide advice and references for decision-making for the steady boosting of Anhui’s capacity for constant innovation in green development.
| Keywords： | Factor AnalysisGreen Development ConceptCapacity for Constant Innovation in Green DevelopmentTime Series Analysis |
