利用1993年以来贵州省社会保障支出和贫困人口统计数据，通过向量自回归模型和多元回归模型分析了社会保障支出总量、不同主体支出、不同项目支出的减贫效应。研究结果发现：从综合支出来看，贵州社会保障总支出在长期内起到减少贫困人口数量的作用；从分主体支出来看，政府财政社会保障支出和农村个人社会保障支出的增加对于贫困人口数量的减少有一定作用，而企业社会保障支出和城镇个人社会保障支出的增加对于贫困人口数量的减少没有明显作用；从分项目支出来看，社会保险的减贫效果最好，社会福利次之，社会救助最差。文章从理论和贵州社会保障制度发展现实的角度，对数据分析结果给予解释。
Use of guizhou province since 1993 spending on social security and poverty population statistics, through the vector autoregression model and multiple regression model analyzes the total spending on social security, poverty reduction effect of different main spending and spending. The results of the study show that the total expenditure of social security in guizhou is a long-term reduction in the number of poor people. From points main spending, government fiscal social security expenditure and rural individual increased spending on social security would be helpful for reducing the number of poverty population, and corporate spending on social security and urban individual increased spending on social security for the reduction in the number of poor people have no obvious effect; In terms of project expenditures, social security is the best in poverty reduction, social welfare and social assistance. This paper gives an explanation of the data analysis results from the perspective of the theory and the development of social security system in guizhou.
| Keywords： | The PoorPoverty Reduction EffectSocial Security ExpendituresMain SpendingProject Expenditures |
