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2015年房地产市场发展回顾与2016年展望

文章摘要

2015年,在宏观经济下行压力和房地产高库存的背景下,政策刺激需求入市,销售回暖、房价有所回升。但是,由于人口流动趋势变化及土地供应差异,一二线城市与三四线城市出现结构性差异,一二线城市住宅地产去库存较快、房价上升,而三四线城市的去库存压力仍较大;商业地产方面,一线城市空置率低,而二线城市以及三四线城市商业地产风险持续积累。在房地产市场格局重塑的背景下,房地产行业加速整合,并购重组案例明显增多;同时房地产企业积极寻求转型,通过多元化转型和拓展产业链寻求新的利润增长点;房地产存量市场正在成为市场关注的热点。展望2016年,政府将进一步推出新的刺激政策,推动建立国家住房银行,通过刺激需求和调节供给来加大三四线城市的去化速度;房地产市场将呈现弱平衡,一二线城市房价继续上涨概率大,三四线城市在政策呵护下将逐渐止跌企稳;房地产企业将加速转型,并购规模将扩大,房地产金融将加速发展。

Abstract

Under the background of economic downward pressure and high inventory of real estate in 2015,policy stimulated the demand,and sales and price began to pick up. However,due to the change of population flow trend and land supply difference,the first and second tier cities have structural differences to the fourth tier cities. The inventory of residential estate in the first and second tier cities digested faster,and the price picked up,but the inventory pressure in the third and fourth tier cities is stressful. On the commercial real estate,the vacancy rate of the first tier cities is low,while it continues to accumulate in the other cities. Under the background of the pattern of remodeling in the real estate market,the industry accelerates to integration,the case of M&A and restructure increased significantly;at the same time,the real estate enterprises actively seek the transformation model,and try to seek new profit growth through diversification,transformation and expand the industrial chain;while the stock market of real estate is becoming the market focus.

Outlook 2016,the government will further introduce new stimulated policies,and promote the establishment of national housing bank.By the stimulating demand and supply adjustment to digest the inventory in the third and fourth tier cities.Real estate market will show a weak balance,and the housing price of the first and second tier cities will continue to rise with high probability,and the price in the third or fourth tier cities will gradually stabilized by the stimulated policy.Real estate enterprises will accelerate the transformation,and the scale of M&A will expand,and the real estate finance will accelerate development.

作者简介
王申:上海财经大学会计学博士,中国建投投资研究院研究员