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大国产能外移的宏观经济条件与逻辑

文章摘要

本文从逻辑和历史两个角度讨论了一国大规模对外投资的宏观经济条件。在供给约束型经济态势下,资本存量短缺,国内投资空间广阔,对外投资能力很低,对外投资不是一国宏观经济本身的要求,FDI进入本国受到欢迎。在需求约束型经济初期,国内投资取决于消费和出口,只要政府动用宏观经济调节政策促进消费需求或出口需求上升,国内投资还是有较大空间的,对外投资并不十分迫切。当到达需求约束型经济的成熟阶段时,潜在需求与有效需求比较接近,国内私人投资空间相当狭小,向境外合适地区投资是宏观经济本身的迫切需要。同时,向境外投资又可以拉动本国的资本品出口,不仅能使GNP增长,而且可以促进GDP增长。

Abstract

Macroeconomic conditions for large-scale investment abroad of a power are discussed in two angles of logic and history. Under the supply-constrained economic situation,since the capital stock is in shortage and the domestic investment space is wide,so not only the investment abroad isn’t required in the macro economy of one country but also the ability of investment abroad is very low,and even the FDI is welcomed into home country. At the beginning of demand-constrained economy,the domestic investment depends on the consumptions and exports. As long as the government promotes the consumption demand by adapting the macroeconomic adjustment policies or the export demand rises,the domestic investment still has larger space but the investment abroad isn’t very urgent. At the mature stage of demand-constrained economy,the potential demands are fairly close to the effective demands and the domestic private investment space is quite narrow,and hence it’s urgent need of the macro economy to invest in the suitable foreign regions. Meanwhile,the investment abroad can also pull the capital goods output of home country which not only lets the GNP increase but also can promote the GDP increase.

作者简介
刘巍:刘巍,经济学博士,深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心特聘教授,广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心教授,研究方向为计量经济史与宏观经济学。