美国次贷危机过后，世界各国经济发展迎来新一轮周期。目前，本轮经济周期正处于收缩阶段当中，但其特征较以往大为不同，具体表现为：经济增长动能不足，后危机时期经济复苏缓慢，经济收缩期延长，全球经济发展进入新一轮紧缩过程。此外，2012年伊始，我国宏观经济增速再次跌破8%，标着经济增速进入换挡期。基于此，本文采用TVP-VAR模型，从动态的角度研究了世界经济景气变动对我国实际产出增速的影响，并分析了当前宏观调控政策对熨平经济波动的有效性。研究结果表明，世界经济景气变动的影响仅具有短期效应，它是发达国家经济发展的必然趋势，而与我国经济转型的相关性较弱，因此，我们应该理性看待这一问题，仍把工作重心着力于自身发展。最后，就政策调控有效性的角度而言，选取货币政策熨平经济波动将面临远期福利成本约束，而财政政策刺激和适度的信贷供给先行一直是较为稳健的宏观调控手段。
After American Subprime Crisis，various countries in the world have ushered in a new round of business cycle. Nowadays，this round of business cycle is under a constrictive stage，whose features are of great difference from ever before. For specific performance：economic growth is lack of source；economic recovery is very slow and the constrictive stage has been extended prominently. The global economic development steps into a new round of austerity. Moreover，at the beginning of 2012，Chinese economic growth fell below 8% again，which indicates the growth rate of Chinese economy has stepped into a new period. Based on this，we use TVP-VAR model to study the influence of the world economic climate change on the real output growth rate of our nation；and then，make an analysis on the validity of macro-control policies. The research shows that the impact of the world economic climate change only has a short-run effect，it is an irresistible trend of economic development in developed country，but has a weak correlation with Chinese economic transition. Therefore，we should treat this phenomenon with a rational perspective，focus on our own development. Finally，from the angle of policy regulation，monetary policies may face with high welfare costs，fiscal policies and the anticipated credit supply are still moderate controlling measures when taming economic fluctuations.
