中国经济发展的奇迹已进入提质增效的“第二季”,开始转为中高速增长,主要是经济体本身的资源禀赋条件等发生了重大变化的结构效应所致。劳动力结构与产业结构之间不匹配是结构效应的一个主要方面,容易导致资源配置的扭曲,从而使经济无法实现帕累托最优。对山东省1980~2013年产业结构与劳动力结构的Granger因果检验结果,表明产业结构对劳动力结构有较强的带动作用,特别是第二与第三产业的发展和结构调整显著地带动了劳动力结构的调整。但所有产业的就业结构对产业结构都没有通过Granger因果检验,在统计上不能表明就业结构的变动对产业结构变动具有解释意义,产业结构与劳动力结构之间缺乏互动关系。所以,加强产业分工协作、重视以就业为核心的宏观调控以及深化劳动力配置体制改革,应是推进产业结构调整的重要方向。
Chinese economy is now in its second period called “quality improving and efficiency increasing”,which also means that the high growing speed of GDP has changed into relatively medium growing speed. The slowdown of growth speed dues to the significant transition effects in endowments and resources of Chinese economy. Mismatch of labor force structure and industry structure is the main result of structure effect,which generally leads to the distortion of resource distribution and prevents economy equilibrium from attaining Pareto Optimality. This article makes a Granger causality test based on labor force structure and industry structure data of Shandong Province from 1980 to 2013 and certifies that industry structure has more driving power,especially the development and industry structure adjustment in the second and third industry driving the transition of labor force structure. But the employment structure of all industries vs. industry structure cannot pass the Granger causality test,thus give us no explanatory meaning statistically. And finally based on the test results,policy suggestions on improving the adjustment of industry structure are enhancing division and cooperation,emphasizing employment problems and prompting institution reform of labor force division.