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未来十年中国周边环境的新挑战与周边外交新战略

文章摘要

21世纪的第二个十年,中国周边环境出现了复杂而重大的变化,面临一系列新的挑战。中国的迅速发展与美国实施亚太再平衡战略,构成了新兴发展大国与守成霸权国之间的结构性矛盾和对冲。中国周边环境面临五个方面的挑战:周边国家对华疑虑增加与域外大国介入加深的重合,中国自我认知与周边对华认知的错位,海上安全挑战与陆上安全问题的并发,亚洲地区多边架构和倡议的竞争,边疆发展滞后与周边环境恶化的联动。为了更好地维护中国利益和亚洲稳定,未来十年中国周边战略需要新的战略思维,应在周边国家与外部大国对我联合制衡的消弭、中国自我认知与周边对华认知错位的调适、海权与陆权的并重、亚洲区域多边制度的设计、边疆发展与周边外交的统筹等五个方面作出努力。有鉴于此,未来十年中国政府需要更加重视周边外交,“周边外交”在中国外交总布局中的地位将进一步跃升。

关键词:中国外交

Abstract

In the second decade of 21st century,complicated and major changes are occurring in China’s neighboring environment,which have brought new challenges to China’s neighboring diplomacy. China’s fast development and the U.S. strategy of re-pivoting to Asia form a structural contradiction and hedge between a newly emerging power and status quo hegemony. Now China is faced with five major challenges from its neighboring environment:first,the overlapping of its neighbors’ increasing suspicions and the external powers’ deepening involvement into Asian affairs;second,the mismatch between China’s self-perception and its neighbors’ deviated perceptions toward China;third,the concurrence of China’s simmering maritime security challenges and its land security issues;fourth,the Darwinian competition of various multilateral institutions and initiatives in the Asia region;and fifth,the interconnection between China’s less-developed borderland and China’s deteriorated neighboring environment. To better safeguard its national interests and Asia’s stability,China needs to put forward new strategies of neighboring diplomacy in the next decade. The subsequent strategies of neighboring diplomacy are identified as follows:firstly,China should adopt measures to ease its neighbors’ increasing suspicion and the external powers’ deepening balancing policy. Secondly,China should adjust the mismatch between China’s self-perception and some neighbors’ deviated perceptions toward China. Thirdly,China should regard its sea power and land power as equally important in the context of “building China into a marine power”. Fourthly,China should put forward its own designs for Asia’s regional multilateral institutions so as to accommodate itself to various multilateral institutions and initiatives. Fifthly,China should make an overall plan to balance its borderland development and its neighboring diplomacy. Therefore,Chinese periphery government needs to attach more importance to its neighboring diplomacy in the next decade. Accordingly,Chinese government also needs to upgrade the status of its neighboring diplomacy in China’s overall diplomacy.

作者简介
石源华:石源华,复旦大学国际问题研究院教授、中国与周边国家关系研究中心主任,国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心副主任兼复旦大学分中心主任。
祁怀高:祁怀高,复旦大学国际问题研究院副教授、中国与周边国家关系研究中心副主任。