本文通过对中国（大陆、香港、澳门、台湾）和新加坡的总和生育率的趋势分析发现，这些国家和地区的总和生育率从20世纪60年代以来都呈下降态势，目前已经低于更替水平2.1，而中国香港、澳门、台湾地区和新加坡的总和生育率甚至低至1.3。经济因素、社会因素和文化因素通过对人口生育意愿的影响进而影响生育率的变动，子女养育成本的提高和对个人价值的重视导致人口生育意愿不高，而人口政策对调整总和生育率的作用有限，华人传统生育文化对生育意愿的作用也日渐式微。刺激人口生育以及吸纳外部移民是这些国家和地区未来一段时间人口政策的调整方向和重心。研究结果提示，人口政策的制定和调整需要审时度势，沉稳果断，否则已有的问题得不到解决，还将产生新的问题。
The paper analyzes total fertility rates of Chinese Mainland，Hong Kong，Macao，Taiwan and Singapore and finds that fertility rates of major regions of East Asia for Chinese have been below the rate of population replacement，which are influenced by economic factor，social factor and cultural factor. The transformation from controlling population growth to stimulating population growth will come in the form of policy adjustment direction and focus during a period of time in these countries and regions. It suggests that formulation and adjustments of population policies should judge the hour and size up the situation，or else the existing problems will not have been resolved，and new problems will be created.
| Keywords： | Population PolicyChineseFertility Rate |
