2016年前3个季度货币宽松，4季度开始收紧货币。全年债券市场价格振荡上行，年末转入熊市。股票市场低位振荡，在全球主要股市中表现垫底。商品市场价格大幅上涨。外汇市场美元先弱后强，人民币贬值幅度进一步扩大。房地产市场量价齐升，价格暴涨致年末限购重启。2017年，在流动性偏紧的情况下，债券市场利率中枢上行，料价格将振荡下行。股票市场趋势性机会难现，转为结构性机会。商品市场分化明显。外汇市场美元继续走强，其他主要货币贬值概率大。房地产市场调在控政策中降温，房价高位趋稳，成交量与投资减少。因此，2017年建议增加美元、有色金属商品期货配置，降低债券配置，上半年关注原油机会，下半年关注黄金机会，同时关注股票市场结构性行情。
Monetary easing in the first three quarters of 2016 began to tighten in the forth quarter. Throughout the year：the bond market’s price swang upward，but at the end turned into a bear market. The stock market continued drifting lower，and behaved bottom of the world’s major stock markets. Commodity market price rose sharply. In foreign exchange market，dollar went strong after weak，and RMB further expand the devaluation. Real estate market Rose on Both Volume and Price，price inflation caused the purchase restart. In 2017，the central interest rates goes upward，bonds price shocks down. Trends in the stock market is difficult to see，turns into structural opportunities. The differentiation of commodity market is obvious. In foreign exchange market，dollar continues to strengthen，but other major currencies perform devaluation. The real estate market is cooling under regulation policy，stabilized high prices，and trading volume and investment reduce. Therefore，in 2017，proposed to increase the allocation of the dollar and the non-ferrous metal commodity futures，and reduce bonds. Pay attention to the crude oil opportunity in the first half of the year，and the golden opportunity in the second half. At the same time，pay attention to the stock market’s structural opportunity.
