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2015~2016年拉美经济形势:衰退与分化

文章摘要

2015年,世界经济增长缓慢,大宗商品价格持续走低,国际贸易也陷入低谷,拉美和加勒比地区经济遭受重创,地区整体经济增长率、通胀率、就业率和国际贸易总额等多项基础指标的恶化程度创下了近年之最,经济基本面十分脆弱。地区内部的分化加大,中美和加勒比地区的经济指标好于南美。面对经济困难,地区各国实施了针对性的财政政策和货币政策,适应性地调整了汇率和国际储备资产,并对金融体系进行了改革和创新,以此来冲抵潜在的系统性风险,降低外部不确定性的冲击。但是,经济政策的顺周期性仍未发生根本改变,无法促进经济增长,甚至加大了经济的波动性。展望未来,由于外部环境不利、风险敞口较大,而政府的政策空间有限,地区经济在中短期内缺乏足够的复苏动力,2016年的经济增长将会有限。同时,由于地区各国生产结构和贸易伙伴重心的差异,区域内分化有可能进一步加剧。

Abstract

In 2015,due to the sluggish world economy,declining prices of staple commodity and slumped international trade,Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)suffered heavy losses. A series of basic indicators,such as the region’s overall economic growth,inflation,employment and international trade,were at the worst in recent years. The economic fundamentals were rather fragile. Meanwhile,the intra-regional difference increased. The economic indicators of Central America and the Caribbean are better than those in South America. Faced with economic difficulties,regional countries implemented targeted fiscal and monetary policy,adjusted exchange rate and international reserve,reformed and innovated the financial system to offset potential systemic risk and reduce the uncertainty of external impacts. However,pro-cyclicality of regional economies was not mitigated. Most of regional economies fell into stagnation and economic fluctuations remained to be large. Looking ahead,because of the unfavorable external environment,relatively large risk exposures,and limited space for government policy,economic recovery in the region will lack adequate momentum in the short and medium terms. Economic growth rate in 2016 is supposed to be modest. Meanwhile,as regional countries vary in production structure and major trade partners,their disparities are likely to further exacerbate.

作者简介
岳云霞:岳云霞,经济学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济室研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济、国际贸易与投资。