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风云诡谲:国际军事安全形势的危与机

文章摘要

2014年以来的国际军事安全可谓风云诡谲、变化无常。从国际战略格局看,“一超多强”局面并未改变;从国际安全态势看,复杂性和脆弱性更为突出。因主要大国均能理性应对彼此矛盾和冲突,国际安全总体形势尚处可控状态。然而,一些地区安全形势并不乐观,以国家利益和权力争夺为根本的国与国矛盾以及国家内部利益冲突导致的内部矛盾激化,致使现实武装冲突此起彼伏和潜在武装冲突概率增大,安全困境导致军控与防扩散以及军备竞赛问题依旧十分突出,这种危局叠加并存,给包括中国在内的世界各国带来严重的安全威胁与挑战,也导致未来国际军事安全形势走向依旧复杂多变。但只要秉承正确理念并恰当处置,危局定会得到化解,世界和平与稳定的机遇就会不断地被创造出来。

Abstract

The international military security situation is volatile since 2014. Speaking from the perspective of international strategic pattern,the landscape of “one superpower with a number of major powers” has remained unchanged. From the perspective of international security situation,complexity and vulnerability are more prominent. As the major powers have handled their conflicts rationally,the overall international security situation has remained largely under control. However,the security situation in some regions is far from optimistic. International conflicts characterized by contentions for national interests and power as well as domestic conflicts caused by internal problems have intensified,which raises the probability of actual and potential armed conflicts. Due to the security dilemma,the issues of arms control,non-proliferation and arms race have remained primary concerns for the international community. The coexistence of the crises poses serious security threats and challenges to countries around the world including China,implicating further uncertainty in future international military security situation. But the crises can be defused and opportunities of world peace and stability created as long as correct thoughts and approaches are applied.

作者简介
刘强:刘强,博士,解放军国际关系学院战略与安全研究所执行所长兼国际安全研究中心主任,教授、博士生导师,大校军衔,研究方向为国际安全和外交问题,