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2015~2016年拉美政治形势:政坛酿巨变

文章摘要

2015年,拉丁美洲政治形势基本保持稳定。首先,部分国家举行了选举,政权更迭是其主要特征。虽然选举过程中出现了冲突,但仍然实现了政权平稳过渡。其次,拉美左翼执政10多年来受到前所未有的挑战,右翼政党实力进一步增强。如阿根廷左翼政党正义党在选举中落败,右翼势力取得总统选举的胜利,拉美进入右翼政党执政周期的可能性增强。最后,2016年是拉美政治发展非常关键的一年,古巴共产党将召开“七大”,玻利维亚和哥伦比亚将进行宪法公投,委内瑞拉反对派可能发起对总统的罢免公投,这些都值得关注。

Abstract

In 2015,the political situation in Latin America and the Caribbean remained stable. First,some countries held elections and achieved regime change. Despite conflicts in elections,smooth transition was achieved. Secondly,the left-wing forces,which have ruled the region for tens of years,faced unprecedented challenges,while the right-wing parties further enhanced their strength. Take Argentina as an example. The left-wing Justice Party lost in the election to the right wing,which signifies that right-wing forces will probably start to dominate Latin America. Finally,the year of 2016 is highly important for political development in Latin America. In Cuba,the 7th congress of the Communist Party will be held;Bolivia and Colombia will face constitutional referendum;and the Venezuelan opposition may stage a recall referendum to the president. All these merit attention.

作者简介
杨建民:杨建民,法学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员、政治研究室主任。