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地方政府债务置换:影响几何?

文章摘要

地方置换债券的推出主要是为了解决地方债务高企。以地方置换债券的方式把以往通过城投平台发行的高利率、高成本债券替换成低成本的债务,不仅能有效缓解地方财政压力,还能降低城投债的信用风险。浩浩荡荡的3。2万亿元的地方置换债券以及6000万元的新增债券一经推出便对供给端产生了不小的冲击。但央行连续降息、降准的举措释放出大量的流动性,支撑起了地方债的需求端。商业银行也加大了对地方债的配置,成为需求主体。目前来看,地方债的发行仍较顺利,但后续的置换计划仍需宽松的流动性支持,或倒逼政策进一步放松。

Abstract

The local government debt replacement is designed to solve the high local government debt problem. Through the replacement,the high-interest and high-cost bonds will become low-cost debts,which will not only effectively alleviate the financial pressure on the local governments,but also reduce the credit risks of urban construction investment bonds. The 3.2 trillion worth replacement bonds and 60 million new bonds have instantly caused a negative impact on the supply side. However,the People’s Bank of China have released large amounts of liquidity through RRR and interest rate cuts to support the demand side of local government bonds. Commercial banks have also increased their local government bond portfolios and become the main players on the demand side. For now,the process of the local government bond issuance has been quite smooth. But if more debts are to be replaced,more support from ample liquidity will be indispensible;otherwise,the policy stance should be further loosened.

作者简介
胡月晓:胡月晓,经济学博士,上海证券研究所首席分析师、注册国际投资分析师(CIIA),高级经济师,主要研究方向:宏观经济、资本市场理论和实践。
陈彦利:陈彦利,硕士研究生,上海证券研究所固定收益分析师,主要研究方向:债券市场的跟踪分析。