随着我国海上丝绸之路建设的不断加快及人民币国际化程度的不断提高，人民币汇率与海上丝绸之路沿线各国货币的汇率联系也日益紧密。本文首先聚焦32个具有法定流通货币且位于海上丝绸之路沿线的国家，通过构建VAR、MGARCH-Dvech等模型宏观探寻沿线各国间的汇率关系，为纵深推进海上丝绸之路建设和明晰人民币国际化的路径提供理论基础。然后，从企业角度出发，微观探讨人民币汇率变动给华商企业带来的冲击及避险对策，为华商企业有效采取防范和规避措施提供实践基础。研究发现，目前仅有少数几个国家的货币与人民币汇率存在联动效应关系，海上丝绸之路沿线各国在应对外部冲击时仍缺乏汇率协调与合作。在此情况下，华商企业更应熟练掌握规避汇率风险的方法，将汇率风险对企业的影响降到最低，并建立完善的外汇风险管理体系，尽快化解汇率变动带来的风险。
With the accelerating construction of “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the deepening internationalization of the RMB，the exchange rate link among countriesalong the Maritime Silk Road（henceforth MSR）has become increasingly close. This paper focuses on 32 MSR countries，which possess the legal currencies，on the one hand explores their exchange rate relationship by constructing a VAR，MGARCH-Dvech models，and on the other hand discusses the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Overseas Chinese Enterprises（henceforth OCE）and hedge countermeasures. It is found that only five MSR countries have the linkage effect relationship with RMBexchange rate，and that the MSR countries are still short of coordination and cooperation. Under these circumstances，OCE should be familiar with methods to avoid exchange rate risk，and try to establish a management system to avoid the risks soon as possible.
