在需求上升和供给下降的共同作用下，绝大部分大宗商品价格指数在2016年1月触底，并于2016年上半年实现了稳定反弹。2016年1～7月，以现价美元计价的大宗商品价格指数反弹了14.3%，原油、黄金、矿石与金属、食品和农业原材料的价格指数分别反弹了48.1%、21.9%、15.7%、15.7%和6.1%。中国的经济结构调整、淘汰过剩产能和经济增速下降，导致其对大宗商品需求增长明显放缓，甚至对部分商品需求的绝对量下降。2015年，受价格下降的影响，中国大宗商品的进口价值大幅下跌30.4%，但进口数量实际增长6.7%，中国占全球进口的价值份额上升了1.8个百分点，达21.4%。大宗商品价格指数在2016年下半年预计将以盘整行情为主，在2017年将继续小幅反弹。预计原油均价在2016年第四季度、全年将分别为52美元/桶、45美元/桶，在2017年将反弹至57美元/桶左右。
Increasing demand and declining supply has led to most of price indexes of commodities have reached trough in January 2016 and realized steady rebound in the first half of 2016. During the interval from January to July，2016，the price index of all commodities in terms of current dollars has rebounded by 14.3%，and that of crude petroleum，gold，minerals and metals，food，and agriculture raw material has risen by 48.1%，21.9%，15.7%，15.7%，and 6.1% respectively. With the impact of economic restructure，overcapacity obsolete，and the slow down in economic growth，the growth rate of China’s demand on commodity has declined significantly，even recorded minus growth for several commodities. Due to the substantial decline in prices，the value of China’s commodity import in 2015 has decreased by 30.4%，while the quantity of import has risen by 6.7%，and China’s import share has risen to 21.4% with an increase of 1.8 percents. The price index of global commodities will consolidate in the second half of 2016，and will rebound moderately in 2017.It is expected that the average price of crude petroleum will fluctuate at around USD52/barrel，and USD45/barrel in the fourth quarter，and whole year of 2016 respectively，and which will climb at around USD57/barrel in 2017.
| Keywords： | Commodity MarketDemandSupplyPrice |
